NFL Picks 2009 - Conference Championship Round

A mostly unspectacular year in the NFL has come down to a surprisingly interesting finish. The four teams that remain are all different from each other in terms of strengths. The New Orleans Saints made it with a high-powered passing attack led by great play-calling and a great quarterback coupled with a mediocre yet opportunistic defense. The Minnesota Vikings arrived on the heels of a stud defensive line, balance on offense, and loads of elite talent in spite of a truly great head coach. The Indianapolis Colts got to this point because they have the league's best quarterback and they make plays on both sides of the ball at the most crucial points in the game. And the New York Jets find themselves in this position because they have a suffocating defense, a complete running game, and because Rex Ryan may have done the best job of coaching in the NFL this year. Because these teams play to their strengths, they all are so close to realizing their Super Bowl dreams that they can taste the sea salt in the sweet Miami air.

The detractors out there should make no mistake. These teams all belong. They don't choke in the big moment like the Bengals, Chargers, Cowboys and Steelers. They also aren't too one-dimensional like the Ravens, Cardinals, Packers and Patriots. In a sense, these games are almost bigger than the Super Bowl. Because the teams facing each other usually are familiar with the opponent, the better team usually will win instead of who has the better game plan like in the Super Bowl. We usually will see better football games this weekend because of that, so miss the Super Bowl if you must, but don't miss tomorrow's games.

Here's where we stand:


Bryan: (5-3); Last Week (2-2)
Alex: (5-3); Last Week (3-1)
Dan: (5-3); Last Week (4-0)

1. (5) New York Jets at (1) Indianapolis Colts, 3:00 p.m., Sunday (CBS)

Dan: I'm hotter than hell after being likely the only person in the country last week to go 4-0, so listen up. To start, this game is all about the Colts' offense vs. the Jets' defense, or more specifically Manning vs. Rex Ryan's blitz packages. Nothing else comes close in terms of importance. I said last week the Jets' key to the game on defense was to get the hell off the field on third down, which they did as they held San Diego to just four conversions on 13 third down attempts. First, we've all seen the ascent of former Pitt Panther Darrelle Revis this season and his impact on opposing offenses. He WILL take Colts WR Reggie Wayne out of this game. But the difference between Peyton Manning and the rest of the league is that he won't even test Revis. He will spend this game focusing on TE Dallas Clark, WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and hitting his running backs on short routes to beat the blitz. Don't expect a lot of screens in this one, as the Jets are a phenomenal group of tacklers and won't let the Colts move down the field with a horizontal offense. The Chargers were successful last week when they attacked the Jets down the middle, so that's even more reason for the Colts to go there. I honestly can't wait to watch this, because Manning is fantastic against the blitz but when I watch the Jets they still seem to have everyone covered even when they rush six or seven.

When the Jets have the ball, it's all about sustaining drives. We know the running game will be there, but there is a lot more pressure on Mark Sanchez in this game than in weeks past, as he will have to put more than 17 points on the board to beat Indianapolis. If you're waiting for him to implode you'd better put the coffee on, because Sanchez is going to be a great quarterback in this league. To keep the Colts off-balance, he has to be more efficient when the Jets actually throw on first down than last week when he completed 2 of 6 passes, one for 1 yard and another for 13, misfired on three others and took a sack on the sixth. Also, third downs are again key for the Jets on this side of the ball as well. Last week, Sanchez threw his only touchdown pass of the game on a 3rd and 2, and on the following drive he converted a huge 3rd and 4 with a simple 7-yard completion to Jerricho Cotchery. The next play was Shonn Greene's 53-yard touchdown run.

In the end, I think the Jets' magic carpet comes unraveled in this one because like I said, the best team usually wins these games and the Colts are by far the better team. Manning will be Manning and will be the most prepared player in this game, and he will find a way to score on this defense, though it's not going to be a blowout and that's not the way this Colts team is built. This may look a lot like the Colts' week 8 victory against the 49ers, but they will get the job done. Score: Indianapolis, 20-13

Alex: Really? What a shitty year in the NFL. I mean I saw this game played last week and the Colts won it 20-3. I am just flat out bored with, tired of and pissed at the way the postseason has played out. Let's all just hope that the Colts finish what they started back in week 16 and just end these pricks already. Although if my predictions are correct that means we have a good two weeks to debate a "Manning/Farve Showdown" in the Super Bowl. Ugh. Score: Indianapolis 20-3

Bryan: Skip all the stats and all the analytical bullshit for me. All I know is that the Colts are the better team. Score: Indianapolis, 24-14

2. (2) Minnesota Vikings at (1) New Orleans Saints, 6:40 p.m., Sunday (FOX)

Dan: Throw all the stats out in this one. I mean it. These teams change their identity on offense nearly every week, and their defenses are inconsistent yet potentially dominant. So let's break this down in a much simpler fashion by keeping score of which team has the advantage in the following categories:

Quarterbacks: Push. Brett Favre is better under pressure, Drew Brees makes you pay more if you give him time. They're both elite.

Running game: Minnesota. Adrian Peterson is the most explosive and still gets positive yards even when not playing his best. Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell are good but not great, and Reggie Bush had a nice "I'm still here" moment last week but he's still a cunt.

Receivers: New Orleans. Minnesota has a great one in Sidney Rice, but New Orleans' group is deeper and more in sync with their quarterback. Rookie Percy Harvin might not play for Minnesota. Also, Visanthe Shiancoe and Jeremy Shockey are a push at tight end.

Offensive Line: Push. New Orleans if you put a gun to my head.

Defensive Line: Minnesota. Jared Allen will make his handful of plays, but won't dominate like he did against Dallas. Minnesota also may be without DE Ray Edwards (3 sacks last week) and DT Kevin Williams, and if they play they will be hampered. Still, better than the Saints' group.

Linebackers: Minnesota. Not spectacular, but New Orleans' group can't tackle at all.

Secondary: New Orleans. By a landslide.

Special Teams: New Orleans. Especially if Harvin can't go for the Vikings.

Coaching: New Orleans. By another landslide.

Intangibles: New Orleans. 1. The Vikings have far more pressure on them because Brett Favre was brought here to win this game. The Saints have almost no outside pressure on them, their city and the media will still love them win or lose. 2. The Saints are the home team. 3. The Saints have the best team unity and the best leadership.

That's 5-3 advantage Saints. They are the better team talent-wise, coaching-wise, and they have all the intangibles in their favor. Suddenly, we have one hell of a Super Bowl awaiting us. Score: New Orleans, 31-20

Alex: So this is it, huh folks? The home team has won every game in the NFC so far proving that it is once again a conference that is top heavy and filled with bottom feeders. There really is nothing much else to say for about these teams that I haven't already said. Brett Farve is a cocksucker, the Saints offense is Mickey Mouse bullshit, blah, blah, blah. The Vikings know they can't win on the road. The Saints know that the Vikings know that they can't win on the road. The Vikings know that the Saints know that they know that they can't win on the road. But... Score: Minnesota 30-27

Bryan: This game has true potential to live up to the hype. The Vikings should save themselves from going 0-5 in Super Bowls and just lose now, which I think they will. If Jared Allen is so great, how come Max Starks shut him down? Reggie Bush seems to have critiqued his style a bit to be a more effective runner with the ball. I'm not sure how much that will factor into the game, but New Orleans being at home will. Expect the Superdome to be rocking as the Saints host their first ever championship game. Score: New Orleans, 34-24